With four games left to play in the AFL Women’s season, there are still nine different possible Grand Final combinations on the table.
Aside from Carlton versus Fremantle, the other three games will all have massive implications on the Grand Final and from most likely to least likely, here’s everything that could happen this weekend.
Current club percentages:
Western Bulldogs: 148.4%
GWS Giants: 112.4%
Grand Final Possibilities:
1. Western Bulldogs or Melbourne versus GWS
How does it happen: Barring a draw, the winner of the Bulldogs/Melbourne game on Saturday night will be hosting the Grand Final. A win and they’re in. As for GWS, they first need to get the four points against Brisbane. They then need to have a higher percentage than Adelaide, assuming they defeat Collingwood. If Adelaide loses, then GWS goes straight to second place with a win over the Lions.
2. Western Bulldogs or Melbourne versus Adelaide
How does it happen: This one is quite similar to the above, except Adelaide will require GWS to lose, or have a lower percentage than them assuming both clubs win. Currently the Giants currently have a percentage advantage, making them the favourites if both sides get the points.
3. Western Bulldogs versus Melbourne
How does it happen: We could see these teams face off in successive weeks. As already mentioned, the winner automatically qualifies for the Grand Final, but the loser will have to hope BOTH Adelaide and GWS lose and for Brisbane to have a lower percentage than them. GWS losing means Brisbane will equal the loser on 16 points and therefore it’ll come down to percentage.
Similarly, if we get a draw between the Dogs and Dees, they can still both qualify if they have a higher percentage than GWS and Adelaide, which they currently do.
4. Western Bulldogs or Melbourne versus Brisbane
How does it happen: For Brisbane to make finals, they’ll need to beat GWS by enough points to have a larger percentage than the loser of Melbourne and the Dogs. They’ll also need Collingwood to beat Adelaide. If the Bulldogs lose, it’s going to be quite difficult for Brisbane to overcome the percentage gap.
5.GWS or Adelaide versus Western Bulldogs
How does it happen: The only way the Grand Final venue leaves Victoria is if the Bulldogs/Melbourne game ends in a draw and the Giants or Adelaide win by enough to overcome the Bulldogs’ percentage. Given the Dogs have a percentage of 148.4, it’s extremely unlikely to happen and even more unlikely that the Dogs drop out of the top two altogether. Melbourne can’t make it in this scenario because of the percentage gap between them and the Bulldogs.
Grab the popcorn because the final week of the season is going to be a wild one.